Air Travel Recovery

IATA Air passenger forecast

The end of the nightmare is getting closer. The vaccination campaigne all around the world is giving hope to passengers along with the efforts of the aviation industry to encourage people to fly safe. There’s optimism and data support that reflex that as for the second half of 2021, air traffic will go back at 52% of pre Covid level on 2019.

It is true that the damage of the COVID-19 crisis will continue to be felt whitin the next years, but it is also a reality that all of the indicators point to the fact that there’s a huge demand on people to go back to fly again of which some include:

  • In 2021, global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52% of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019).
  • In 2022, global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 88% of pre-COVID-19 levels.
  • In 2023, global passenger numbers are expected to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels (105%).

By 2030, global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be 7% below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to COVID-19.
Beyond 2030 air travel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalization, giving average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of 3.2%. IATA’s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8%.

“I am always optimistic about aviation. We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead. And when that happens, people are going to want to travel. The immediate challenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination/testing certificates. At the same time, we must assure the world that aviation’s long-term growth prospects are supported with an unwavering commitment to sustainability. Both challenges require governments and industry to work in partnership. Aviation is ready. But I don’t see governments moving fast enough,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

Click here to download the full version of the IATA’s COVID-19 an almost full recovery of air travel in prospect report.

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January 20th, 2024